Seasoned Researcher, Equity Analyst, Financial Journalist and Investor with over 20 years of experience of financial markets.
CONTEXT
If the forthcoming Superintelligence can give a decisive military advantage, how likely is it they will let you use if for stuff other than making memes, sending cold emails and some basic programming?
GEOIMPACT WATCH
What happened at the OPEC+ meeting and what bearish factors could pressure crude in H2'2024? Video session with Dimitri Zabelin, founder of Geopolitics Strategy research firm Pantheon Insights.
MODEL PORTFOLIO
We close our positions in RBLX, PRKS and Brent. The Model Portfolio is now up 11.6% since inception on April 24th, compared to the S&P500 up 5.3% in the same period.
RESEARCH
Oil prices have dropped over 9% in the past five days due to fears of increasing supply from OPEC+ and weakening global demand. Conversely, geopolitical unrest is growing as Brent crude has reached an important technical level.
RESEARCH
With industry-driven demand projected to outpace a structurally declining supply by 21% in 2024, silver is poised for a parabolic move.
RESEARCH
Despite recent growth deceleration, EVO's dominant position in live casino, stable margins, and strong cash generation present a compelling opportunity amidst a sharp stock pullback. With the price now at a key support level and favorable technical indicators, we anticipate a +20% rebound.
MODEL PORTFOLIO
Since its inception on April 24th, the Model Portfolio has achieved a strong start, outperforming by 6.5 percentage points over SPX. Here is a brief rundown of the top contributors.
RESEARCH
With surging geopolitical tensions and years of deleveraging, Scorpio Tankers is primed to gain, now heading for over $1B in CF in 2024. But after a 70% rally, timing is tricky.
CHART OF THE DAY
The OZEM ETF hopes to bank on the mega success of the miraculous weight loss drug, and the list of holdings should be fertile ground for stock pickers looking for a more direct ride on the wave.
CHART OF THE DAY
Q1 2024 sets the stage for accelerating earnings growth throughout the year.
GEOIMPACT WATCH
Since a large part of the stock market's recent gains rests on the semiconductor industry, where Taiwan is a key player, we take a look at the downside risk here. And it's huge also for the West.
RESEARCH
A booming copper price signals a strong economy, now largely driven by secular factors like the energy transition. To weed out the plain-vanilla cyclicals from the secular growth driven industry stocks, we make a case for Momentum ETF PRN over SPDR Industrial ETF XLI.
MODEL PORTFOLIO
To track our open calls, we use a Model Portfolio for performance, closing positions, and reviews. Since April 24th, the portfolio is up 7.5% vs SPX's 4.9%. Our strongest bet is Reddit Long, up 32%. We close positions in XLU and SPX.
COMMISSIONED EQUITY RESEARCH
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RESEARCH
Despite a 40% pullback in the parabolic cocoa rally, hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand believes cocoa has another leg up to go. Several structural factors with near-term impact, combined with a 10-year replant cycle and a technically appealing setup, suggest he will likely be right.
RESEARCH
With copper surging above $10,000 per tonne, there’s $140-680 literally dangling up for grabs, in places where no one is watching at night. All solutions to this problem will come at tremendous cost.